The Reserve Bank lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% on 2 September, its second consecutive 0.25 percentage-point increase, and said the OCR may need to rise further depending on inflation and economic conditions.

Floating mortgage rates have moved higher, fixed rates were already rising before the OCR announcement, and New Zealand wholesale rates jumped sharply again on 11 September.

That leaves borrowers with three obvious choices: Fix now, stay floating, or wait?

There isn't one right answer, but current pricing makes the trade-offs clearer. If your mortgage is coming up for review and you want to understand how the current rates apply to your own loan, deposit, equity and plans, contact our team for a personalised mortgage consultation.

What mortgage rates are available now?

For someone refixing today, the most useful starting point is what lenders are currently advertising.

Interest.co.nz's mortgage-rate table shows major-bank fixed rates broadly around:

Special rates generally require borrowers to meet particular equity, LVR or other eligibility conditions, and the rate actually offered can differ.

Source: Interest.co.nz (as at September 14th 2026), check https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing for latest rates.

One feature stands out:

Short fixed terms are currently cheaper than two-year terms.

That can make six-month or one-year rates attractive, but the lowest rate today isn't automatically the cheapest strategy overall.

A one-year borrower gets the lower rate now but faces another refix in about 12 months. A two-year borrower pays more upfront for another year of repayment certainty.

Why have fixed mortgage rates been rising?

Floating rates tend to respond relatively directly to the OCR.

Fixed rates are influenced more by wholesale funding rates and financial-market expectations about where interest rates are heading. For a deeper explanation of this dynamic, see our guide on why fixed mortgage rates don't always follow the OCR.

That's why banks can increase fixed mortgage rates before the RBNZ actually raises the OCR.

The September Monetary Policy Statement says higher wholesale rates have already flowed into mortgage rates at terms between six months and two years.

At the time of the statement, financial markets were expecting the OCR to reach around 3% by the end of 2026.

What happened to wholesale rates on 11 September?

This is the newest part of the story. On 11 September, New Zealand government bond and wholesale rates moved sharply higher.

Interest.co.nz reported that:

• The one-year NZ Government Bond yield increased around 8 basis points to 3.23%

• The two-year yield jumped around 20 basis points to 3.92%

The two-year move is particularly relevant to fixed mortgage pricing.

That doesn't mean mortgage rates must rise by the same amount. Bank pricing also depends on deposits, funding mix, margins and competition.

But if wholesale rates remain elevated, they create fresh upward pressure on fixed mortgage rates.

What were rates doing before September?

The Reserve Bank's latest official advertised-rate data shows fixed rates were already moving higher before the September OCR decision.

Between July and August, average special advertised rates moved from:

• 1 year: 4.74% to 4.87%

• 2 years: 5.15% to 5.29%

• 3 years: 5.35% to 5.41%

There is one important limitation: the dataset released on 7 September reflects end-of-August rates.

It therefore doesn't capture either the 2 September OCR increase or the 11 September wholesale-rate jump.

Source: RBNZ mortgage-rate series

What does the Reserve Bank expect next?

The OCR is currently 2.75%, with the next decision due on 28 October 2026. The RBNZ says the OCR may need to increase further if inflation pressures persist.

Annual inflation reached 4.1% in the June quarter, although a significant part of that increase came from higher fuel prices. The Bank expects inflation to remain above 3% for the rest of 2026 before moving back into the 1–3% target range next year.

That does not guarantee another OCR increase.

But it does make a strategy based purely on "rates should fall soon" less certain. For a broader look at where rates could head, our 2026 mortgage rate outlook walks through the key scenarios.

The refix decision tree

Is repayment certainty your main priority?

If yes, fixing at least part of the mortgage may suit you better than floating.

Fixing isn't only about trying to secure the cheapest possible rate. It buys certainty. If knowing exactly what your repayments will be for the next one or two years matters to your household budget, that has value.

The trade-off is that rates could fall while you're fixed.

Are you waiting because you think fixed rates will fall?

Calculate the cost of waiting first.

Current one-year fixed rates are broadly around 4.95%–4.99%, while floating rates are materially higher.

That means remaining floating while waiting for a cheaper fixed rate carries a real cost. To make the strategy worthwhile, the rate you eventually secure needs to fall far enough to recover that extra interest.

Waiting is therefore not a neutral decision, it is effectively a view on where rates are going.

Do you need flexibility?

Keeping part of the mortgage floating may still make sense.

That can be useful if you're:

• Expecting a lump-sum payment

• Planning to sell

• Returning to New Zealand and changing jobs

• Renovating

• Wanting to make substantial additional repayments.

You also don't need to choose between fixing everything and floating everything.

A split structure can combine certainty with flexibility.

Are you trying to pick the exact rate peak?

Consider spreading your refix risk instead.

Some borrowers divide the mortgage across different fixed terms so the whole loan doesn't come up for renewal at once. This approach — often called mortgage laddering — can reduce exposure to any single point in the rate cycle.

For example:

• Part fixed for six months

• Part fixed for one year

• Part fixed for two years.

That doesn't guarantee the lowest overall interest cost, but it can reduce the risk of having your entire mortgage exposed to one point in the rate cycle.

What do today's rates mean for repayments?

Consider a $500,000 mortgage with 25 years remaining.

The difference between 4.99% and 5.45% is around $134 a month.

The difference between 4.99% and 6.09% is around $323 a month.

On a $600,000 mortgage, approximate repayments become:

These figures assume principal-and-interest repayments over 25 years and are illustrative only. You can run your own numbers using our mortgage repayment calculators.

How much could waiting on floating cost?

Suppose you have a $500,000 mortgage.

If a one-year fixed option is around 4.99% and the floating alternative is around 6.09%, the difference is approximately 1.10 percentage points.

On $500,000, that equates to roughly:

$5,500 a year, or about $1,375 over three months, using a simple interest comparison.

That doesn't mean fixing is automatically better.

If fixed rates later fall enough, waiting may still pay off.

But it shows why the cost of waiting should form part of the decision.

Is six months the obvious choice because it's cheapest?

Not necessarily. Current six-month rates are generally lower than one- and two-year rates. But six months also means another refix decision arrives quickly.

If your next rate is materially higher, some of the initial saving disappears.

So the better question isn't:

"Which rate is cheapest today?"

It's:

"What would my next rate need to be for this shorter-term strategy to work?"

What about one year versus two years?

This is arguably the key refix decision right now.

One-year major-bank rates are around 4.95%–4.99%, while two-year rates are roughly 5.39%–5.49%.

That means borrowers are paying a premium of roughly 0.4–0.5 percentage points for the second year of certainty.

The one-year option gives you a lower payment today but exposes you to another refix next year.

The two-year option costs more now but removes that uncertainty.

Neither is automatically better. It depends on how much value you place on certainty and how comfortably your household could handle a higher rate later. Our guide to refixing in 2026 walks through this decision in more detail.

Is floating still worth considering?

Yes, primarily where flexibility matters.

Floating can be useful if:

• You expect a major lump-sum repayment

• You may sell soon

• Your financial circumstances are changing

• You want to keep only a small portion of the mortgage flexible.

But with floating rates materially above shorter fixed rates, keeping the entire mortgage floating while waiting for rates to fall can become expensive.

What should returning Kiwis watch?

Returning New Zealanders have an extra layer of uncertainty.

If you're still in Australia while organising a New Zealand mortgage, consider:

• Whether your lender is assessing Australian or future NZ income

• Your expected move date

• NZD/AUD currency exposure

• Whether you expect a large deposit transfer

• Whether your property or employment plans could change soon.

For someone in the middle of a trans-Tasman move, flexibility may be just as important as the headline fixed rate. Our guide on returning to New Zealand and what it means for buying a home covers the key considerations in more detail.

What's not in the headlines

The newest official RBNZ rate data is already backward-looking.

The September release reflects end-of-August mortgage rates. It's useful for tracking the trend, but borrowers should pair it with current advertised rates when making an actual refix decision.

Current advertised rates may not yet reflect the full wholesale move.

The sharp 11 September move happened after many existing advertised rates were set. If wholesale rates remain elevated, further repricing is possible.

Short fixed rates currently reward borrowers for accepting more refix risk.

Six-month and one-year rates are below many two- and three-year offers. The trade-off is having to make another decision sooner.

The RBNZ hasn't declared the tightening cycle finished. A further OCR increase remains possible, although it's not guaranteed.

So: fixed, floating or wait?

Consider fixing sooner if:

• Repayment certainty matters

• Your budget has limited room for higher repayments

• You expect your mortgage structure to remain stable

• Current fixed rates fit comfortably within your budget.

Consider a shorter fix if:

• You want today's lower short-term rate

• You're comfortable refixing again relatively soon

• You have enough buffer if rates are higher next time.

Consider keeping some floating if:

• You expect a lump-sum payment

• You may sell or restructure

• Flexibility matters more than the lowest initial rate.

Be cautious about waiting if:

• Your main assumption is that rates "must come down"

• You're paying substantially more on floating

• You haven't calculated the cost of waiting.

Our takeaway

September has materially changed the refixing conversation.

The OCR is now 2.75%, the Reserve Bank has left another increase on the table, and wholesale interest rates have moved sharply higher.

At the same time, shorter fixed terms remain noticeably cheaper than longer ones. Six-month rates are broadly around 4.69%–4.79%, one-year rates around 4.95%–4.99%, and two-year rates around 5.39%–5.49%.

That creates a real trade-off:

Shorter terms offer a lower rate today but more refixing risk. Longer terms cost more but provide greater certainty. Floating offers flexibility but currently comes at a meaningful premium.

Rather than trying to predict the perfect rate, compare:

1. The actual rates available to you

2. The repayment difference between terms

3. The cost of staying floating while waiting

4. How much rate volatility your budget can absorb

5. Whether splitting your mortgage reduces timing risk

6. How likely your circumstances are to change.

The best refix decision isn't necessarily the one that turns out cheapest with hindsight. It's the structure that gives you a workable balance of cost, certainty and flexibility.

If you're approaching a refix and want to compare the options against your actual loan balance, equity, repayment budget and future plans, contact our team for a personalised mortgage consultation. We can help you work through the numbers before you commit to your next fixed term.

This article provides general information only and does not constitute personalised financial advice. Mortgage rates and wholesale rates can move quickly, and individual lender offers, eligibility requirements and break costs vary.

Primary Sources

Interest.co.nz, Current mortgage rates
https://www.interest.co.nz/borrowing

Interest.co.nz, Wholesale interest rates are moving sharply higher, 11 September 2026
https://www.interest.co.nz/bonds/140209/wholesale-interest-rates-are-moving-sharply-higher-suggesting-fixed-home-loan-rates

Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Monetary Policy Statement, September 2026
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version

Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Official Cash Rate
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/the-official-cash-rate

Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New residential mortgage standard interest rates
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/new-residential-mortgage-standard-interest-rates

Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New residential mortgage special interest rates
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/exchange-and-interest-rates/new-residential-mortgage-special-interest-rates